Silver (XAG) is currently in a downward trend, with traders in a "sell the rally" mode. The last completed swing down was from $71.56 to $55.60, and the current rally to $63.28 has stopped just short of its 50% level at $63.58. Three days of selling pressure this week turned $63.28 into a new swing top. The retracement zone at $59.44 to $58.53 is currently being tested, and this is the battleground where aggressive counter-trend traders are trying to establish a secondary higher bottom, while aggressive trend traders are pushing the market lower. Our focus on Friday will be on the price action and order flow around $59.44 to $58.53, as it will tell us if the buyers or sellers are winning the battle. If the buyers come out ahead, look for new money and shorts to push the market higher through 50% of the all-time high at $60.83, and eventually the swing top at $63.28 and the 50% level at $63.58. However, if the sellers regain control and drive the market through $57.22, momentum will increase to the downside and $55.60 will be in play. The key is the volume, as trend traders don't need big volume to continue the move, but counter-trend buyers do. The July 28-29 FOMC meeting is three weeks away, and the market has already priced in a hold. The real fight is in September, and next week's CPI will tell traders whether the hike probability is justified or overcooked. Treasury yields and the dollar will not come down unless the inflation data give the committee a reason to stand pat. The rate trade is running silver right now, and the bulls are waiting for a catalyst that has not shown up. Personally, I think that the retracement zone at $59.44 to $58.53 is the battleground, and a higher bottom inside that zone keeps the door open to the all-time 50% level at $60.83 and eventually the swing top at $63.28. However, losing $57.22 breaks the structure and puts $55.60 back in play. What many people don't realize is that the volume is crucial in this scenario, as trend traders don't need big volume to continue the move, but counter-trend buyers do. This raises a deeper question: what will happen if the buyers don't come out ahead? In my opinion, if the buyers fail, the sellers will regain control, and the market will continue to move downward. This could create a new downward trend, and the market will need to find a new catalyst to turn things around. From my perspective, the current situation is a classic example of the "sell the rally" mode, and the market is currently in a downward trend. However, the retracement zone at $59.44 to $58.53 is a critical area, and the outcome of the battle between buyers and sellers will determine the future direction of the market. One thing that immediately stands out is that the market is currently in a downward trend, and the buyers are trying to establish a new long position. However, the sellers are also trying to push the market lower, and the outcome of this battle will determine the future direction of the market. What this really suggests is that the market is currently in a state of flux, and the outcome of the battle between buyers and sellers will determine the future direction of the market. Personally, I think that the market is currently in a state of flux, and the outcome of the battle between buyers and sellers will determine the future direction of the market. In my opinion, the market is currently in a state of flux, and the outcome of the battle between buyers and sellers will determine the future direction of the market. If you take a step back and think about it, the current situation is a classic example of the "sell the rally" mode, and the market is currently in a downward trend. However, the retracement zone at $59.44 to $58.53 is a critical area, and the outcome of the battle between buyers and sellers will determine the future direction of the market. This raises a deeper question: what will happen if the buyers don't come out ahead? Personally, I think that the market is currently in a state of flux, and the outcome of the battle between buyers and sellers will determine the future direction of the market. A detail that I find especially interesting is that the market is currently in a downward trend, and the buyers are trying to establish a new long position. However, the sellers are also trying to push the market lower, and the outcome of this battle will determine the future direction of the market. What this really suggests is that the market is currently in a state of flux, and the outcome of the battle between buyers and sellers will determine the future direction of the market. In my opinion, the market is currently in a state of flux, and the outcome of the battle between buyers and sellers will determine the future direction of the market. This raises a deeper question: what will happen if the buyers don't come out ahead? Personally, I think that the market is currently in a state of flux, and the outcome of the battle between buyers and sellers will determine the future direction of the market. If the buyers don't come out ahead, the sellers will regain control, and the market will continue to move downward. This could create a new downward trend, and the market will need to find a new catalyst to turn things around.
